Garden Cities of the 21st Century

It has been more than 100 years since Ebenezer Howard published his epochal book on social reform that ultimately won him world recognition. Published first in 1898 as 'Tomorrow: A Peaceful Path to Real Reform', it was followed by revised publications in 1902, 1946 and 1965 under its present more evocative title, ‘Garden Cities of Tomorrow'. The multiplicity of editions testifies to a continued interest to secure a harmonious existence between humans and their natural environment. Influenced by the conventional wisdom of the time, deviations from the original 1898 publication by Howard of his town plan and his social and financial proposals affected the design and implementation of the prototype city of Letchworth built in 1903. Ignoring the drawings and writings of Howard’s book, the Letchworth model, because it was completed within the lifetime of Howard, was seen and accepted as the de facto model from which future garden cities could be reproduced. Duplication of the Letchworth prototype in Europe and North America, as a result of the deviations, led to incomplete, inaccurate or dysfunctional replications. The Letchworth concept of garden cities must be considered to have failed to reach the goal Howard had hoped to achieve: a distribution of sustainable, benign urban environments with an equitable and wholesome quality of life in a rural setting. More than a full century has elapsed since Howard wrote his book and the world has entered a new millennium. New technologies, changing demographics and, most importantly, emerging social and environmental circumstances raise the possibility that the concept of garden cities could be revisited to determine that, if adapted to meet the constraints and needs of the 21st century, could reach the goals envisaged by Howard. To reach this goal would require a return to the writings and drawings of his original work, 'Tomorrow: A Peaceful Path to Real Reform', and a departure, independent of previous attempts to interpret the content of Howard’s dream for all societies

Cosmic acceleration vs axion-photon mixing

Axion-photon mixing has been proposed as an alternative to acceleration as the explanation for supernovae dimming. We point out that the loss of photons due to this mixing will induce a strong asymmetry between the luminosity, d_L(z), and angular-diameter distance, d_A(z), since the latter is unaffected by mixing. In a first search for such an asymmetry we introduce a dimensionless mixing amplitude lambda so that lambda=0 if no photons are lost and lambda = 1 if axion-photon mixing occurs. The best-fit to SNIa and radio galaxy data is lambda = -0.3^{+0.6}_{-0.4} (95% CL), corresponding to an unphysical, negative, mixing length. This same argument limits the attenuation of light from supernovae due to dust. We show that future d_L and d_A data from SNAP and galaxy surveys such as DEEP2 and KAOS will detect or rule out mixing at more than 5-sigma, almost independently of the dark energy dynamics. Finally we discuss the constraints from the near maximal polarisation of the gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB021206. Since mixing reduces the polarisation of distant sources, future observations of high redshift GRBs may provide orthogonal constraints on axion-photon mixing and related scenarios.Comment: 4 pages, 4 colour figures. Matches version to appear in ApJ. Significantly stronger constraints arising from new data: universe still accelerating at 3 sigm

Reducing wildlife damage with cost-effective management programmes

Limiting the impact of wildlife damage in a cost effective manner requires an understanding of how control inputs change the occurrence of damage through their effect on animal density. Despite this, there are few studies linking wildlife management (control), with changes in animal abundance and prevailing levels of wildlife damage. We use the impact and management of wild pigs as a case study to demonstrate this linkage. Ground disturbance by wild pigs has become a conservation issue of global concern because of its potential effects on successional changes in vegetation structure and composition, habitat for other species, and functional soil properties. In this study, we used a 3-year pig control programme (ground hunting) undertaken in a temperate rainforest area of northern New Zealand to evaluate effects on pig abundance, and patterns and rates of ground disturbance and ground disturbance recovery and the cost effectiveness of differing control strategies. Control reduced pig densities by over a third of the estimated carrying capacity, but more than halved average prevailing ground disturbance. Rates of new ground disturbance accelerated with increasing pig density, while rates of ground disturbance recovery were not related to prevailing pig density. Stochastic simulation models based on the measured relationships between control, pig density and rate of ground disturbance and recovery indicated that control could reduce ground disturbance substantially. However, the rate at which prevailing ground disturbance was reduced diminished rapidly as more intense, and hence expensive, pig control regimes were simulated. The model produced in this study provides a framework that links conservation of indigenous ecological communities to control inputs through the reduction of wildlife damage and suggests that managers should consider carefully the marginal cost of higher investment in wildlife damage control, relative to its marginal conservation return

Beacon for Wales: Final report

The Beacon for Wales has initiated a culture change in Welsh Universities where public engagement is more embedded, more supported and more visible than it was 5 years ago

Cosmic distance-duality as probe of exotic physics and acceleration

In cosmology, distances based on standard candles (e.g. supernovae) and standard rulers (e.g. baryon oscillations) agree as long as three conditions are met: (1) photon number is conserved, (2) gravity is described by a metric theory with (3) photons travelling on unique null geodesics. This is the content of distance-duality (the reciprocity relation) which can be violated by exotic physics. Here we analyse the implications of the latest cosmological data sets for distance-duality. While broadly in agreement and confirming acceleration we find a 2-sigma violation caused by excess brightening of SN-Ia at z > 0.5, perhaps due to lensing magnification bias. This brightening has been interpreted as evidence for a late-time transition in the dark energy but because it is not seen in the d_A data we argue against such an interpretation. Our results do, however, rule out significant SN-Ia evolution and extinction: the "replenishing" grey-dust model with no cosmic acceleration is excluded at more than 4-sigma despite this being the best-fit to SN-Ia data alone, thereby illustrating the power of distance-duality even with current data sets.Comment: 6 pages, 4 colour figures. Version accepted as a Rapid Communication in PR

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This is the second in a series of three articles documenting the geographical distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of human malaria. The first paper addressed the DVS of the Americas and the third will consider those of the Asian Pacific Region. Here, the DVS of Africa, Europe and the Middle East are discussed. The continent of Africa experiences the bulk of the global malaria burden due in part to the presence of the <it>An. gambiae </it>complex. <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>is one of four DVS within the <it>An. gambiae </it>complex, the others being <it>An. arabiensis </it>and the coastal <it>An. merus </it>and <it>An. melas</it>. There are a further three, highly anthropophilic DVS in Africa, <it>An. funestus</it>, <it>An. moucheti </it>and <it>An. nili</it>. Conversely, across Europe and the Middle East, malaria transmission is low and frequently absent, despite the presence of six DVS. To help control malaria in Africa and the Middle East, or to identify the risk of its re-emergence in Europe, the contemporary distribution and bionomics of the relevant DVS are needed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A contemporary database of occurrence data, compiled from the formal literature and other relevant resources, resulted in the collation of information for seven DVS from 44 countries in Africa containing 4234 geo-referenced, independent sites. In Europe and the Middle East, six DVS were identified from 2784 geo-referenced sites across 49 countries. These occurrence data were combined with expert opinion ranges and a suite of environmental and climatic variables of relevance to anopheline ecology to produce predictive distribution maps using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The predicted geographic extent for the following DVS (or species/suspected species complex*) is provided for Africa: <it>Anopheles </it>(<it>Cellia</it>) <it>arabiensis</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>funestus*</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>gambiae</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>melas</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>merus</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>moucheti </it>and <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>nili*</it>, and in the European and Middle Eastern Region: <it>An. </it>(<it>Anopheles</it>) <it>atroparvus</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Ano.</it>) <it>labranchiae</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Ano.</it>) <it>messeae</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Ano.</it>) <it>sacharovi</it>, <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>sergentii </it>and <it>An. </it>(<it>Cel.</it>) <it>superpictus*</it>. These maps are presented alongside a bionomics summary for each species relevant to its control.</p

Toward improved rural settlements : physical development issues and options

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Manipulation-induced hypoalgesia in musculoskeletal pain populations: a systematic critical review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Manipulation-induced hypoalgesia (MIH) represents reduced pain sensitivity following joint manipulation, and has been documented in various populations. It is unknown, however, whether MIH following high-velocity low-amplitude spinal manipulative therapy is a specific and clinically relevant treatment effect. Methods This systematic critical review with meta-analysis investigated changes in quantitative sensory testing measures following high-velocity low-amplitude spinal manipulative therapy in musculoskeletal pain populations, in randomised controlled trials. Our objectives were to compare changes in quantitative sensory testing outcomes after spinal manipulative therapy vs. sham, control and active interventions, to estimate the magnitude of change over time, and to determine whether changes are systemic or not. Results Fifteen studies were included. Thirteen measured pressure pain threshold, and four of these were sham-controlled. Change in pressure pain threshold after spinal manipulative therapy compared to sham revealed no significant difference. Pressure pain threshold increased significantly over time after spinal manipulative therapy (0.32 kg/cm2, CI 0.22–0.42), which occurred systemically. There were too few studies comparing to other interventions or for other types of quantitative sensory testing to make robust conclusions about these. Conclusions We found that systemic MIH (for pressure pain threshold) does occur in musculoskeletal pain populations, though there was low quality evidence of no significant difference compared to sham manipulation. Future research should focus on the clinical relevance of MIH, and different types of quantitative sensory tests. Trial registration Prospectively registered with PROSPERO (registration CRD42016041963)